SpaceX Investor Predicts Orbital Compute as Next Major Profit Driver
Gavin Baker, a notable investor with Atreides Management and an early backer of SpaceX, has pinpointed "orbital compute" as the space company's forthcoming primary profit engine. This prediction emerges amidst a deepening worldwide scarcity of computing capacity, suggesting a pivotal shift towards space-based infrastructure.
Details of SpaceX's Future in Orbital Computing
Speaking on Friday, June 13, 2026, Baker articulated his vision to CNBC, underscoring the escalating demand for computing resources that terrestrial solutions are struggling to meet. He presented a compelling financial argument: with the advent of a fully reusable Starship, the cost of launching one gigawatt of computing power into orbit could fall to approximately $5 billion. This would position orbital computing at an estimated $30 billion per gigawatt, a significant reduction compared to the $60 billion required for equivalent infrastructure on Earth.
Baker elaborated that a substantial portion of terrestrial computing costs—around $25 billion per gigawatt—is allocated to power, cooling, land, and essential ground infrastructure. These expenditures become largely redundant in a space environment, offering a distinct economic advantage. While acknowledging the ongoing complexities of repair and upkeep for space-based systems, he remains confident in SpaceX's ability to navigate these hurdles.
Moreover, Baker pointed out SpaceX's rapid ascent in the cloud computing arena. Just a month prior, the company had no significant presence in this sector, yet it has quickly emerged as the fourth-largest cloud provider, surpassing even Oracle. This swift progress is partly attributed to an impressive 55% internal rate of return on their Colossus One data center, a performance metric that typically garners strong market support for further capital deployment.
For those observing, Baker highlighted three critical milestones: the expansion of terrestrial gigawatt capacity, the deployment of Starlink V3 using reusable Starships, and the activation of orbital computing. Executives from SpaceX had earlier informed investors that initial demonstrations of orbital computing might occur as early as late 2027, ahead of the previously projected 2028 timeline detailed in their IPO documents. Atreides Management participated in SpaceX's historic IPO, which, priced at $135 per share, raised an unprecedented $75 billion by selling 555.6 million Class A shares, surpassing the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. The company's stock concluded its inaugural trading day with a robust 19.22% increase, closing at $160.95 per share.
This bold move into orbital computing could redefine the landscape of data infrastructure, pushing the boundaries of technological innovation and potentially offering solutions to the growing global demand for computing power. The economic advantages, coupled with SpaceX's proven track record of ambitious achievements, suggest a promising future for this venture, provided the challenges of space operations can be effectively managed.
